Singapore's second-priciest plot of land just drew a bid. Here's how much.

A government land parcel at Peck Hay Road in Newton just drew a top bid of $1,865 per square foot per plot ratio — the second-highest land rate a developer has ever staked on a residential-only state site, behind only the 2018 Cuscaden Road award. City Developments (CDL) and its Hong Leong–linked partner offered $542.4 million for the 0.55-hectare plot, and only three other bidders showed up. That thin turnout, against that rich a number, is the whole story: in a year when the government is flooding the Confirmed List with sites, a developer was still willing to pay near-record money for this one corner of prime District 9. What follows is haio's read — the land economics, the four-bidder ladder, the breakeven that the eventual launch price has to clear, and the neighbourhood the future condo will be sold into.

Land-tender figures: URA Government Land Sales tender-result release (pr26-44, tender closed 11 June 2026) and Annex A bid schedule, on file with haio. Site dimensions: URA tender particulars. Breakeven figures are haio estimates (method stated in §3). The tender is closed but NOT yet awarded — URA evaluates the bids before announcing the winner. Figures as at 12 June 2026.

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On this page

1. The award: a near-record land rate on a four-bidder field
2. The bid ladder: who else was at the table — and how far back
3. The breakeven ladder: what $1,865 of land asks of the launch price
4. The neighbourhood: a first-mover position with a school catchment that thins from 2030
5. haio's take

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1. The award: a near-record land rate on a four-bidder field

Start where every land story should — the number. URA's tender records show the Peck Hay Road site drew a top bid of $542,400,000 against a maximum permissible gross floor area of 27,017 m² (290,808 sq ft), which works out to $1,865 psf ppr ($20,076 per m² of GFA). The 5,513.5 m² site (59,347 sq ft) carries a 99-year lease and a plot ratio near 4.9 — high-density, the kind of envelope that supports the 36-to-39-storey tower the winning developer has signalled.

To see where that rate sits, the chart below is haio's GLS ledger — every government residential land site with a winning bid and a buildable GFA on record (218 sites, 1992–2026), each reduced to one land rate in $ psf ppr, with the haio breakeven and estimated launch price in the tooltip. It is the same ledger haio carries across every land-tender article. Here it shows the eight richest residential land rates ever recorded alongside the past year's awards, with Peck Hay Road in haio electric blue:

The ledger reads one way: across every residential government land site since 1992, only Cuscaden Road has ever fetched more than Peck Hay's $1,865 psf ppr. The 2018 Cuscaden parcel went for $2,377 psf ppr and became the 192-unit Cuscaden Reserve; Peck Hay Road, at $1,865, is now No. 2 on that all-time list — and the richest of the current cycle, above the $1,820 psf ppr paid for the Bukit Timah Road parcel in November 2025 and well clear of the Dunearn Road and Tanjong Rhu sites that anchor the rest of this year's tape. The whole back half of the ledger — sub-$800 psf ppr land in the suburbs — is a different market entirely; what makes Peck Hay rare is how few sites have ever sat this high.

Source — site dimensions and land rate: URA tender particulars and Annex A bid schedule (pr26-44), psf ppr = $542,400,000 ÷ (27,017 m² × 10.7639 sq ft/m²). Comparable land rates and the full ledger: URA Government Land Sales tender-result releases (winning bid ÷ maximum GFA). Cuscaden Road $2,377 psf ppr (May 2018) → Cuscaden Reserve: URA award records. Breakeven and estimated launch in the ledger are haio estimates (method in §3).

2. The bid ladder: who else was at the table — and how far back

Four bids came in — fewer than some market watchers had pencilled in for a prime CCR plot. The line-up, top to bottom from URA's Annex A:

Two things stand out. First, the winning bid is 8.4% ($42.2m) clear of the second-placed offer — a decisive gap, not a photo finish, which tells you the CDL camp wanted this site specifically rather than getting dragged up by a crowded auction. Second, the bottom three bids cluster between $1,580 and $1,720 psf ppr; the top bid is the outlier. On a four-bidder field, that is a developer pricing to win a scarce CCR address, not the market collectively re-rating Newton land.

The relatively modest turnout is best read as discipline, not weakness: the government has just loaded the second-half 2026 Confirmed List with nine sites, so developers can afford to be selective about which parcels best fit their land banks. CDL, the eventual front-runner here, knows the Newton corridor — it sits within walking distance of its own CCR pipeline.

Source — bid schedule (all four bids, bidder names, amounts): URA Annex A to pr26-44. Land rates: each bid ÷ maximum GFA of 290,808 sq ft. The 8.4% gap: ($542.40m − $500.19m) ÷ $500.19m. Confirmed-List context: URA's second-half 2026 GLS programme.

3. The breakeven ladder: what $1,865 of land asks of the launch price

So what does $1,865 of land in every buildable square foot mean for the price the future condo has to sell at? These are haio estimates — illustrative developer economics built cost by cost from stated assumptions, not the developer's books — with every assumption on its step and below the chart:

Assumptions (haio estimates): land at $1,865 psf ppr (URA top bid, §1); construction at $350–$413 psf, central $380 — the 3Q2025 quantity-surveyor band for an above-average-standard condominium ($293–$413 psf) intersected with the $350–$500 psf range in current development-cost references; professional fees at 6% of construction (range 5–7%); financing and interest at 3.5% of land plus construction (range 2–5%); marketing and sales at 3% of gross development value (range 2–4%); legal and statutory soft costs at 6.5% of total costs (range 5–8%); contingency at 4% of total development costs (range 3–5%). The cost shares that scale with the selling price are solved simultaneously with the breakeven — T = [L + C + 0.06C + 0.035(L + C)] ÷ (1 − 0.03 − 0.065 − 0.04) — giving ≈$2,713 psf central (range $2,675–$2,755 across the construction band); saleable area assumed roughly equal to maximum GFA. Margin rungs are applied to the central estimate. Actual breakeven moves with design efficiency, financing terms and launch timing.

That central breakeven of ≈$2,713 psf is the floor the developer needs to clear just to come out even; the +15% margin rung lands near $3,120 psf. Set that against what the market expects the eventual launch to ask: independent analysts have floated $3,400 to $3,900 psf for a CCR project off this land cost. In other words, the consensus launch range sits comfortably above even haio's +15% rung — the spread is there for the developer, and the buyer is the one being asked to fund it. For context on the comparables that frame those launch reads: nearby Cuscaden Reserve has traded around $3,000–$3,200 psf this year, while Park Nova on Tomlinson Road sits near a $4,700 psf median — the ceiling and floor of the prime-D9 launch band a Peck Hay project would slot into.

Source — breakeven method and percentages: haio itemized estimate (the same method haio applies to every land-tender article). Construction band: 3Q2025 quantity-surveyor reference for an above-average-standard condominium, converted at 10.7639 sq ft/m². Analyst launch estimates ($3,400–$3,900 psf): research commentary cited in coverage of the tender close. Cuscaden Reserve ~$3,000–$3,200 psf and Park Nova ~$4,700 psf median: transacted-price reporting / caveat data.

4. The neighbourhood: a first-mover position with a school catchment that thins from 2030

The site's case is location. It sits in prime District 9, about 200m from Newton MRT interchange on the North-South and Downtown lines, and is set to front a planned extension of Peck Hay Road that connects through to Scotts Road — part of a wider plan to remake the Newton area into a mixed-use "urban village" with thousands of new homes over time. A buyer here is buying a first-mover position on that transformation while it is still mostly on paper.

The school angle cuts both ways. The site is within 1km of Anglo-Chinese School (Junior) on Winstedt Road and ACS (Primary) on Barker Road — historically a powerful draw for CCR family demand. But under the Ministry of Education's consolidation plan, ACS (Primary) relocates to Tengah in 2030 and exits Barker Road; ACS (Junior) stays through 2030 before consolidating in 2033. By the time a Peck Hay project completes, the headline ACS name that has anchored this corridor's family premium may be on its way out. Other schools in the vicinity — St Margaret's (Primary), Singapore Chinese Girls' Primary, St Joseph's Institution Junior — remain, but a family buyer should price the catchment as it will be in 2030, not as it is today.

Source — distance to Newton MRT (~200m), the Peck Hay Road / Scotts Road extension, and the Newton "urban village" plan: developer media statement and URA planning context reported on the tender close. School proximity (ACS Junior / ACS Primary within 1km) and the 2030 relocation timeline: Ministry of Education school-consolidation plan as reported. haio has not independently re-measured the 1km catchment — treat distances as indicative.

5. haio's take

A near-record land rate on a four-bidder field is a confident bet on one thing: that prime District 9, walking distance to a Newton interchange, will still command a scarcity premium a few years from now even as the wider market is being cooled with supply. The economics are visible and they are demanding. haio's estimated breakeven sits around $2,713 psf, the +15% margin rung near $3,120, and the analyst launch reads — $3,400 to $3,900 psf — sit above even that. The land-cost advantage other estates enjoy is not here; at this rate, the buyer pays the prime-Newton premium in full, plus the wait for a neighbourhood that is still being built and an ACS catchment that thins from 2030. The reason to buy is conviction in the address; the reason to be careful is that the developer's spread is wide and visible, and it is funded at the price list. Watch the eventual launch price against this breakeven, not the showflat queue — and run your own numbers before the hype lands.

Thinking about a prime-D9 home, or wondering what your budget actually buys here versus elsewhere? Check your affordability with haio →